Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 92726.545971 97774.016369 102817.373297 108231.314009 113875.066102 119581.445178 125783.737720
2025-07-13 85322.755518 93110.216342 101104.338503 109913.430449 119337.403999 129106.182431 139987.065845
2025-07-20 79995.079067 89701.964402 99880.521444 111327.697600 123820.743930 137019.130338 151994.390833
2025-07-27 75538.886194 86670.229144 98552.654376 112144.750368 127225.077862 143406.434068 162044.158617
2025-08-03 71461.171167 83674.253161 96918.271661 112294.640341 129600.678537 148421.173718 170379.859572
2025-08-10 68153.112371 81277.128960 95711.830379 112694.475864 132052.871130 153356.101077 178494.153687
2025-08-17 65085.403632 78950.651410 94401.577722 112803.039314 134023.936092 157629.633332 185771.128679
2025-08-24 63066.152774 77696.671919 94195.451063 114062.742311 137214.658492 163217.661332 194500.878903
2025-08-31 60464.004080 75625.768531 92922.491780 113974.018102 138753.918652 166843.509009 200932.222025
2025-09-07 58984.000083 74797.062105 93027.138852 115429.492809 142039.046150 172453.074649 209650.175345
2025-09-14 57366.030752 73721.101743 92768.088669 116392.164085 144696.879248 177304.479752 217479.502954
2025-09-21 55429.740115 72176.597421 91875.584012 116531.421981 146323.287828 180908.508542 223826.019949
2025-09-28 53513.810518 70608.027722 90917.516265 116568.719194 147824.580212 184385.691532 230076.074852
2025-10-05 52588.953150 70227.206242 91374.137562 118302.785650 151364.427653 190302.283114 239271.004275
2025-10-12 51607.955175 69731.593552 91653.542367 119792.070095 154592.972243 195849.462109 248050.002276
2025-10-19 50386.898249 68883.882136 91455.178499 120656.519762 157033.928085 200439.289925 255686.953827
2025-10-26 48901.708849 67646.491185 90723.236441 120814.968541 158572.808796 203915.987751 261972.090346
2025-11-02 47623.203656 66630.980702 90231.251580 121239.175207 160415.398799 207750.858171 268698.692217
2025-11-09 46272.360343 65476.834121 89523.254144 121354.359223 161844.349607 211062.373291 274783.378092
2025-11-16 45535.015788 65101.002012 89788.803827 122691.173136 164801.308908 216267.077910 283228.320734
2025-11-23 44211.993306 63907.993865 88963.592979 122597.020838 165922.831453 219178.030806 288828.667811
2025-11-30 43650.129287 63711.810424 89417.092219 124141.410339 169127.514520 224700.724170 297713.470324
2025-12-07 42897.308254 63232.931949 89479.878701 125162.773999 171655.967417 229379.987331 305563.893498